Crazy rum or why the rum market goes nuts

I also find the development very sad and think soon you will not get a well-stored rum in cask strength for example from Jamaica or Guyana under 100 €. Above all, almost all bottlings are now affected. And everyone is participating. The online shops unfortunately too. There I find a RA Fiji for 300€ or a Velier Hampden 2016 for 199€. Prices are going up completely crazy. And also very fast. The only bright spot is the possibility to buy samples and share bottles.

I'm also stunned by the dark matter distillery bottle price. for this price I'd buy many other good rums. And since it was an auction, at least one preson had to be bidding high as well. Ridiculous.

For me it looks like an investment done by somebody without knowledge about rums. Surely, if rums of Scottland become new hype, like Japaneese whisky, this would become extremely expensive in the future. On the other hand, it takes almost 100 years for the first J.Bally bottling of Agricole (I believe some are still in existence) to reach similar price. Rarely do I agree with Paul on the matter of rum pricings but this is just ridiculous and a pure price speculation, which spoils the rum market.

This sucks when the fancy botle or a cool story shapes the price more trhan the quality of the product.

By the way, it is also stunning how Brexit influenced the prices. For instance, the Criterion was sold for 975 GBP in the EU, and for less than 700 GBP in the UK.

There were 1200 bottles of Criterion in the UK and 800 in Europe. I think it's more common there. Still, those 700 pounds are insane.Yes, there is a rise in prices but there are still good bottlings. What I see are more and more bottlings that don't make sense to me.

Lucky me lives near a major USA port city and we have yet to see these crazy price hikes on rum. However, the whisky collector market is totally nuts and driving up prices on all spirits. I am thankful to still be able to get really good rums for less than $150 US.

By the way, that bottle of Caroni 17 Year is not only still sitting behind that locked cabinet for more than a month, but the price was dropped by one dollar. It can stay there because my other bottle wound up with my rating of a 7 instead of an 8 or higher. I buy rum for taste instead of "investing".

Vomi, what about the US versions of the Criterion?

4000 bottles worldwide, 2000 EU/UK and 2000 for US.

Destino is 2y bourbon, 12y madeira. It's something like Destino.

Here are some bottle numbers:

Mark I – “1998” 1998-2008 10 YO, Bourbon Cask, 40%, 15,000 bottles

Mark II – “Port Cask Finish” 2005-2014 9YO, 3yr-Bourbon, 6yr-Port, 40%, 30,000 bottles

Mark III – “2004” 2004-2015 11 YO, Bourbon Cask, 59%, 24,000 bottles

Mark IV – “Zinfadel” 2004-2015 11 YO Bourbon & Zinfadel casks, 43%, 24,000 bottles

Mark V – “Criterion” 2007-2017 10 YO, 3yr-Bourbon, 7yr-Madeira, 56%, 4,000 bottles

Mark VI – “2005” 2005-2017 12 YO, ex-bourbon, 59%, 24,000 bottles

Mark VII – “Dominus” 2008-2018 10 YO, ex-bourbon, ex-cognac, 56%, 12,000 bottles

Mark VIII – “Premise” 2008-2018 10 YO, ex-bourbon, ex-Sherry, 46%, 30,000 bottles

Mark IX – “Empery” 2004-2018 14 YO, ex-bourbon, ex-Sherry, 56%, 12,000 bottles

Mark X – “2007” 2007-2019 12 YO, ex-bourbon, 59%, 27,000 bottles

Mark XI – “Sagacity” 2007-2019 12 YO, ex-bourbon, ex-Madeira, 48%, 24,000 bottles

Mark XII – “Nobiliary” 2005-2019 14 YO, ex-bourbon, 62%, 12,000 bottles

Mark XIII – “2008” 2008-2020 12 YO, ex-bourbon, 60%, 27,000 bottles

Mark XIV – “Détente” 2010-2020 10 YO, ex-bourbon, ex-Port, 51%, 21,000 bottles

Mark XV – “Redoubtable” 2006-2020 14 YO, ex-bourbon, ex-Madeira, 61%, 12,000 bottles

Mark XVI – “Shibboleth” 2005-2021 16 YO, ex-bourbon, 56%, 9,600 bottles

Mark XVII – “2009” 2009-2021 12 YO, ex-bourbon, 60%, 30,000 bottles

https://thelonecaner.com/key-rums-of-the-world-foursquare-exceptional-cask-series/?lang=de

I think it's quite simple, just don't buy overpriced limited releases from Mr. Gargano and other independent bottlers, who are the ones driving this development along with those who are speculating in my opinion.

Let those who speculates in alcohol have their little fun for themselves. The fewer people who show interest in these bottlings, the smaller the price increase will be and thus the interest will decrease among those who speculate.

Unfortunately, there are some here who very often discuss which bottles are the best investment regarding the expected price increase.

These people thus contribute to the current development and should therefore not whine.

This post isn't primarily about price increases, we've just drifted in that direction because it's easy to get excited about it. I have written about my strategy in other threads and how I deal with price increases.

What I see are rums that don't make sense to me. Especially too young or too old rums with weaknesses that the bottler tries to cover up by letting them mature in virgin oak for a longer period of time. The goal is to somehow make this rum drinkable and sell it for a lot of money.

Something similar was done with sweet rum, now that the added sugar has to be reduced, attempts are made to cover up the weaknesses with virgin oak barrels. We already saw rum from wet PX cask. It's nothing other than pouring some sherry into the rum. But this fantasy bottling from Dark Matter tops everything I've seen so far.

I agree with Stefan. No wonder I can't find another bottle of Shibboleth at all. And if I found another bottle, the price would be sky high. This kind of crap has encouraged me to stop playing this dirty rotten game by competing with speculators just to get good tasting rum. There are plenty of other fish in the sea.

Out of the six Foursquare ECS rums that I have tried, two got my rating as an 8, two rated as a 7, one rated as a 6, and one rated as a 5. For this kind of money, they are simply not worth it. I am now wondering if many of the rave reviews are from speculators trying to push the prices up.

@vomi: i guess than it is only a matter of time till somebody pays the 25000€ for the Clement 1966 in a well known german rum online Shop... 🤣🤣🤣. Not my spheres to move or act... All those high priced Rums... i stay on earth😉 quite nice here 😃✌

This is all analagous to concert tickets for aging bands such as Genesis or The Rolling Stones. They all know that speculators will buy up the best floor seats in the hopes of making huge aftermarket profits. So each band charges ridiculous prices for floor seats to begin with. For Genesis, the initial price for floor seats was already too high, so I said to hell with them. I now refuse to see the Stones at any price. Twice in my life was enough.

What we publicly called these speculators on the internet or social media was "scalpers".  What we all privately called them was "scum of the earth" because they prevent true fans with lesser means from seeing their favorite bands up close.

The same goes for Foursquare ECS rums. They are already overpriced when they hit the shelves and then speculators scoop them all up in the hopes of making huge profits. I will NEVER buy one of their rums again and the most recent one that I bought would have rated as a 5.

What I also find ridiculous about the Dark Matter rum prices is the difference between the individual bottles. Exactly the same rum is inside each of the bottles, how come the 009 bottle be 5x cheaper than the 001? You pay only for the name and this is just sad because this is not a rum meant to be drunk anymore

If I were a millionaire, I would drink or split that bottle. We don't know who bought it. I suspect that was a whiskey collector. But I don't care about this distillery, it has nothing to do with traditional rum. I would rather enjoy a rum from Jamaica or Guyana.

Looks more like a marketing manipulation coup to me.

Now everybody in the community is discussing this brand. 

How this work? Sell some bottles from anonymous A to B.

Pay 25%fees. Voila. You have a cheap and effective marketing campaign.

I once worked in an online auction house. It was closed because they got trust issues with the customers since the owners of the platform manipulated. And I also witnessed that one designer bid for his own work... It is not daily basis but it is still pretty common I would say.

Well, auctions are not perfect but sometimes this is the only way to get certain bottling. I may complain but I will accept it eventually just to get rum I want. 

This could be the case because rumauctioneer supported this dumb matter as their exclusive bevor the auction.

I'm actually far from criticizing the distillery. They just put their stuff on the market, they are not directly responsible for the price.

They bottled 9 bottles, this is not a distillery amount. They are responsible for this nonsence.

Renegade is also a new distillery, they put their products on the market and everyone can buy their rhum.

This is an absolutely decadent outgrowth of our Western "money doesn't matter" mentality. Too many rich people who don't know what to do with their money. No idea where I should take 13000.-.

But this is a completely exclusive item and that ultimately makes the price, besides who is willing to pay the price. You never know what is in ten years..... 

On the other hand, I also belong to the "bad guys". I have recognized a little more than four years ago that certain rums from certain distilleries increase in price and have invested every free penny in bottles so that I end up owning about two dozen delicious bottles. The good thing is, I love this stuff, if in the future no one is willing to pay anything more I drink it with pleasure myself. So why should I not make use of my rum knowledge, in a small way of course. Whoever wants to may judge me.

By the way, I'm rummaging around on such sites stumbled on things that almost scared me, that I have rum standing around which has increased almost more in value than my "invest" rum. For example, a Diplomatico 2001 I have kept for special occasions. Or a Savanna brought back from vacation and the price quintupled, that's insanity. I expected it to double every ten years four years ago.

And in the end, well, a good rum just costs between 50 and 200. Everything else is luxury and exclusivity. But that's also what's needed in the free market, which is what we all want. And finally, we do not have to buy anything that we do not want and there are also good alternatives such as for Barbados Rum, Doorly's or Cockspur.

Damn, I forgot to take my pills.

Paul after having my own troubles getting  Shibboleth even after pre purchasing in June from Total Wine's Concierge program, I just stumbled upon several bottles at an specialty independent liquor store in town. Feel free to reach out to me if you want them. I just saw them yesterday. 

Jimmy:

I bumped my rating of Shibboleth back down to an 8 where it first started. So I am no longer in a crazy hunt to find another botlle, but thanks anyway. If any rum needs to have a few ice cubes or water added to it, then it is not right for me. Good rum should taste just fine straight from the bottle.

As for auctions, I have never attended any and they are quite popular in the rural areas surrounding me. You get my drift! So, I sure in hell would never go for a rum auction!

Jimmy, what auctions are you bidding at?

Rum auctioneer in Scotland. Auction ended Monday evening and my rum arrived yesterday. Fastest ever, sometimes it takes several weeks. One month the shipment was lost at sea and they promptly refunded all my money. 

I know we're mainly talking about the prices, but rum aged in Scotland doesn't taste nice at all.

Continental aging takes place more slowly than tropical one. I also see no reason to store rum continental, at most to avoid evaporation.

The rum market is nothing compared to what I saw on this recent Black Friday. I drove into New Orleans to buy two bottles of rums that are hard to find (and affordable). When I got there when the store opened, the line was almost three dozen deep waiting to get into the door. So much for avoiding Black Friday crowds. So I asked the man in front of me what they were giving away and I told him that nobody wants what I want. When I told him that I wanted two bottles of rum, he told me that everyone in line was waiting for bourbon and the door man came out and said that anyone not waiting for bourbon could come to the front of the line. I certainly did and the door man recogniozed me as a regular. Well, when I walked in, the lady at the front made a vicious remark, "Watch him!" as if I was lying about wanting rum. I thought that this whole scene was quite insane!!! Then the owner told me that they had started lining up at 5 am, which was 6 hours before. When I got home, I went to their Facebook page to see what all of the hoopla was about. All I could figure was the new arrival of Sazerac Rye Single Barrel Select from this store was the reason.  In other words, when all of them are gone, then there is no more. So these were all speculators hoping to make huge profits. I have had their regular rye years ago and it was only good for making a perfect coffee.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19770652.dark-matters-distillers-sells-inaugural-bottle-rum-13-000/

@vomi I think "Black Matter" release is not a good example for what is going on in the rum market. It is absurd, i agree. But a bad example. It is not only collectible rum prices that explode right now. So this development is driven by loose money policy of the most important central banks in the world. Japan USA, and EU literally money bombing us. Since all the western money = debt, investors desperately "invest" in everything that potentially pays off. Collectible rum ist only one asset of many. If you ask me then we are complaining to much. Most of us have decent amounts of rum and make potential (or real) profit from this bubble. One day maybe there will be inflation or the price bubble will burst. Will it affect us negatively? No. Because in case of Inflation my money put in rum is protected. And if the bubble will burst one day i will still enjoy my asset since i bought it for drinking.

Dark Matter is not a collectable rum. It's nonsence in a bottle. There are rums that are actually worth 500 or 1000 euro, maybe also 2k. Caroni united is a collectable rum, we have to pay 2k for it and that amount is ok. Because the content justifies the price. Dark Matter may be a bad example for the whole market but it shows the direction in which we are heading.

Without the loose money policy even Caronis or whatever collectible/rare rum wouldnt be flipped immediately at auctions with guaranteed profits. There is no such "organic" growth that allows to earn money without investing time. Dark Matter has auctioned 9 bottles to anonymous. This proves nothing to no one. And it surely does not show where we (the collectors, aficionados ect.) are heading. Probably it shows where some marketing guys want to see us.  But not more. This is what i mean when i say it is a bad example.

Biggest factor in the market now is the free money that has to be invested somewhere.

When this factor changes, the whole market will transform back from a Las Vegas Bellagio to normal. And at this point it would be a good investment to buy some damn fine Caronis (by the way). Right now i would keep my hands off them. It is not a good deal longterm. And i will sure not buy any bottles i really like to have just having to sell them 6-12 month later to make some minor profits or to avoid losses. Every serious collector thinks and acts longterm.

Let's agree to disagree. It's kapitalism, you can buy and sell for prices you like. Even after tapering and increase of interest rate Caroni will not go down in price.

No one will sell them for a cheaper price. Maybe the whisky market will collapse one day, but I'm also not sure about that.

Look i do not disagree. Probably the misunderstanding between us is that im speaking about price/value ratios and you are speaking about prices and imply the formula (price=value).

The value of all collectible rum will increase over time constantly. But at some time periods (1) prices will climb faster (relatively) than the values and at some time periods (2) prices will climb slower than the values of collectible rum.

For me without any doubt we have phase (1).  And this is a good time to sell collectibles or to keep them. If you are gambling you can buy some short term and speculate for minor increase. But it is not the right time to build up a stock for collectors.

Sorry but I think the "Dark Matter" thing is nothing more than a marketing stunt they may have bought their rum themselves. I do not think that a collector would pay such a proud price for a bottle from a distillery that has produced only spiced rum since 2015, that's weird.

But also worth considering is if: You can inherit the bottle over generations and at the same time Dark Matter develops into the top distillery. Then it's certainly worth something as a first edition. But we will not see such things.

@Toni : Definitely phase 1 but already towards the end.

@Toni

But if you don't buy Caronis now, how do you manage to buy some later? For example: how good is the current price/value ratio of Caroni 21 (1996)? It seem bad if I understand you right.If you don't buy it now for 350 Euro, how can you buy it some years later for 300 Euro?

What if phase 1 accelerates even more? Does it mean that we were currently in phase 2 without knowing it?

To make this clear. I do not know how long phase (1) will last. Japans central bank has its interest rates at zero for a decade now. But it is definitely phase (1).  Most likely we will have inflation and for example I will manage to buy a Caroni (that's worth 350EUR today)for 1000 EUR in 10 years but this 1000 EUR buy 250EUR of today's value. Another possibility is a major currency crisis combined with crashed economy and new currency reform. The Euro becomes worthless. You won't be able to liquidate anything of your collection. People usually don't have the imagination what can happen long-term. I live in Berlin and we had like (I think)5 different currencies in the last 100 years. We forget such impacts to fast.

Can you guys explain me what ''phases'' you are talking about?

Japan has 9% inflation and USA 8%, it's better to invest the money right now if you live in Japan or USA.

If the euro become worthless why should anyone liquidate the rum collection? This value is save, while euro has 5% inflation.

During inflation, people either invest in foreign currencies or goods to counter inflation. During deflation it's better to stay in the money.

Your theory needs some factors to be correct: our wages would have to rise faster than inflation. But our wages have effectively been falling for decades: "cold progression". Otherwise we wouldn't need min. wages -> "Mindestlohn" and we wouldn't have a care crisis. I am not sure if your monetary theory is correct therefore.

If you expect a currency collapse or devaluation of money, it is better to invest the money immediately. Probably in rum, but there are more liquid assets.

@vomi I totally agree. This value is safe but not very liquid and probably trapped for a long time. Financial advise is complex. Keeping money at bank account with zero interest but 5% inflation rate is not the best desicion too. Investing all your money in Caronis, no matter the price, the same. I will wait for better opportunities to aquire Caronis in the future. I may be wrong though.

@akira i described the phases in my post above :)

Guys, in Poland our national currency PLN looses it's value much faster than EUR. I think investing in anything that has at least constant value in EUR then I'm generally ahead in PLN. 

I understand the point that rums can lose in value while simultaneously getting more expensive in money but even though we don't earn, we prevent higher looses of our current deposits.

If the salaries rise, rums might be worth less than their current equivalent in other goods in the future. If that's true, it is ok to wait and buy rums later but this doesn't solve the problem of storing our assets from now until later with no effect of inflation.

I have been reading all of these posts on investing in rum and find them all quite laughable. Investing in rum is like investing in art and the only way to make money from this is what someone else is willing to pay with no guarantee to make a profit. Sure Caroni's will always go up in value because they are no longer made. But there is a reason that they went out of business about 20 years ago, and that is because most of them were crap. Rum fans in the USA already know this.

In 2000 or so, I was a position trader in the stock market. A day trader needed $150K minimum to profit from the small upticks in the mega cap companies. A position trader like me only needed about $4K to get into it. As long as the position was good, I held onto each purchase for a few days. Technical Analysis was my key with MACD and RSI being the most critical elements. At one point, I took a few hours of vacation time to sell some stocks and use the $500 or so in net profits to buy four tires for my pickup truck. On another time, I bought a stock that was about to gap up, went grocery shopping, and then came home to sell it for a net profit of $65 only one hour later. Not bad for just a few clicks of my computer mouse. I was up 32% that year when everyone else was losing.

So, why did I get out of the market that I was doing so well in? First off, it alienated my ex-wife. Secondly, as she called it, I wound up with "mouseitis' in my right shoulder from spending 4 hours each night doing research before each trading day. In medical terms, I had pinched my T1 Thorasic nerve and almost needed surgery. The puppy that I adopted cured it with her tug of war antics. I soon got out of the market after that scare, but wrote down all of my trading secrets in the event that I would ever choose to get back into it. These days, I am completely happy enjoying all that I have with no more need to be greedy. Investing in booze just sucks.

Im just happy i bought All my caroni at retail price :-) and now during inflationary times, its good to hold on. 

In the end nobody know whats gonna happen? Even not in the stock market and housing prices...

Everything is a wild guess, i just know they have printed/printing too much money and its out of control now..

@Paul B Interesting story you have there. Keep in mind all the guys commenting here did not choose to invest like you did. We are rum aficionados, that is what we have chosen to be. Since prices go grazy in the last years and we have limited ressources they affect our decisions. I personally have to think and to have a plan for my monetary ressources. So i have to make some decisions based on investment logics whether i want it or not.

@akira  Probably we should ask Paul for his trading secrets^^

@Paul "But there is a reason that they went out of business about 20 years ago, and that is because most of them were crap. Rum fans in the USA already know this."

I think you have made a point there. Caronis taste profile is overrated. Some people really like it though. And it is nice to have something special. But nevertheless i think there are not to many Caroni  fans that actually drink Caronis. I assume there is enough of that stuff for drinking for the next 50 years.

Caroni was closed for political reasons.

"...its fate was sealed in 2001 when, despite protests, the Trinidad Government sold a 49% holding in Rum Distillers Limited (Caroni's Rum Division) to Angostura for $35 million. Caroni continued to operate until it was finally closed in 2002. The demise of the Trinidadian sugar cane industry means that the distillery’s which survive on the island are now forced to import their molasses, chiefly from Guyana."

https://www.diffordsguide.com/producers/408/caroni-distillery

Many distilleries have been closed (e.g. in Guyana). That doesn't mean they made bad rum.Caroni is closed for 19 years now, there are not enough bottlings for the next 50 years. There are still some bottlings on the market but Velier is done. There are still some barrels from 97 and 98 left, but the 96 barrels are gone.

@vomi I will ask you for samples again then :)